I’ve seen a number of posts on Facebook suggesting that State employees will not face layoffs. The posts invariably predict some last second miracle. I’m decidedly less optimistic. Here’s why:
1. The 2012 budget deficit just got larger. The union concession agreement would have realized savings starting July 1, 2011. Layoffs won’t happen until September 1st. No cost saving changes to health care plans will take place. This makes some kind of “August miracle” less likely because after July 1st the State will need more and not less from the unions. If an agreement is reached prior to workers being laid off it may save some jobs but some will likely be lost as a result of our new and larger deficit hole.
Each day that passes without concessions or layoffs adds to the State deficit.
2. Layoff notices are sure to spook some union members. It’s one thing to vote against a concession package when you think you’re safe and it’s your co-worker who is going to lose his job. Concessions look awfully attractive when you get a pink slip. Pink slips may change some minds but they won’t change enough to spare layoffs. The package needs 14 of 15 unions and 80% of all votes to carry. The package that was rejected got 11 of 15 unions and a total of 57% of all members. The gap is too large to yield the necessary concessions; and
3. With a larger deficit caused by the unions rejecting the initial concession package – it is impossible for Malloy to go back to the unions with a more generous package and the unions are not going to accept a less generous package.
The only option is layoffs.
I hope I’m wrong but I think I’m right. What do you think?